PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Connecticut Republicans pick candidates to take on 2 veteran Democrats in Congress

With the fight for Congress on PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe line, Republicans are poised to finalize their field of challengers in Connecticut, which hasn’t sent a Republican to Washington in nearly two decades.

Tuesday’s primary comes as candidates in the state’s marquee congressional race are already set: Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes, who is seeking a fourth term, will face a rematch with Republican George Logan, a former state senator. Logan lost to Hayes in 2022 by about 2,000 votes, from a quarter of a million cast.

Republicans are now choosing the people they think are best positioned to carry the party’s banner in less competitive races against two longtime Democratic representatives: Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Jim Himes.

In the Senate primary, Gerry Smith, the top elected official in the town of Beacon Falls, faces Matt Corey, a restaurant operator from Glastonbury.

Both say they believe Murphy can be beaten but acknowledge that it will be a challenge. Connecticut voters have not elected a Republican to the Senate since the late Lowell P. Weicker in 1982.

Corey, who served in the Navy, lost to Murphy by a margin of 20 percentage points in 2018, but he contends that the mood among voters in 2024 benefits Republicans, given the frustration with high energy costs and inflation.

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“Listen, we live in a very tough state,” Corey said recently on WTNH-TV, referring to the state’s history of electing Democrats. “We have to convince the voters that the policies that Democrats have are not working for the citizens of the state of Connecticut.”

Smith, the first selectman in Beacon Falls, insists that he’s the better candidate because of his experience running a community and his electoral success on the local level.

“My first race, I beat a 14-year Democrat incumbent. I can win this race,” Smith recently posted on the social platform X. “The only (way) Mr. Corey is going to DC is if he goes down there on vacation.”

Murphy, who is seeking a third term, has far outpaced both GOP candidates in fundraising. As of June 30, he had $9.7 million in cash on hand for the general election, according to federal records. Smith had $4,245 while Corey had nearly $32,000 as of July 24.

In the Republican primary to pick a challenger to Himes in the 4th Congressional District, Bob MacGuffie, a financial executive who was a leader in the state’s tea party movement, is running against Dr. Michael Goldstein, who lost in a primary in the same district two years ago.

Himes is seeking his ninth term. He had nearly $2.3 million in cash on hand as of June 30, compared with $42,750 for MacGuffie and $98,366 for Goldstein as of July 24.

Republicans held three out of Connecticut’s five seats in the House as recently as 2007, but there have been none in the state’s congressional delegation since since Himes succeeded former U.S. Rep. Chris Shays in 2009.